Market Insights Recap — Week of April 13, 2026

Hello, I'm Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital's Private Bank.

Today we're going to cover going up and going sideways. Oil prices are going up again after the brief talks between Iran and everybody. You've heard over and over that 20% of global crude and LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But who's affected most by the cut off in shipments? It's mostly the Far East, Asia and notably China. Liquefied natural gas, fuel oil and fertilizer are already in short supply in that region. Now although the European Union gets less than 5% of its oil from the Strait, the type of crude is important, and we understand that EU countries may start rationing jet fuel in a few weeks if nothing changes. Now, after two quarters of accelerating growth, look for world economic data to start sliding this month.

Now here at home, we're insulated, but not immune, to global oil prices. Our official gas pump prices only jumped 21% last month, but that was enough to push year-over-year inflation to 3.3%. We'd penciled in 3.5% for year-end 2026. But consumer price inflation, 4% is on the table. Now prices growing at 2.4% late last year, that wasn't troubling to most consumers given that wages were growing north of 3% a year. Now that gas prices have jumped, we already see consumers starting to delay some purchases and being more careful. 

Now also going up last week was the stock market. Thanks to the temporary ceasefire news, most indices jumped 2 to 4%. S&P rebounded a solid 3%. So is the Iran versus everybody correction over? Our charts suggest more back and forth in the coming weeks. These V-shaped drops need bigger bounces higher to get the markets back in bull gear. In short, patience short term, going sideways; longer term, going higher.

Now this week, the start of earnings week. Wall Street seems to be ignoring the geopolitics, pricing in 12% earnings growth for the first quarter. Double-digit earnings growth and steady unemployment means consumers and businesses are still spending. And that equals no recession. Also on tap this week, monthly settlement for volatility futures and options. Plenty of up and down on tap. And don't forget to pay your taxes; 'til next time.