Market Insights Recap — Week of April 27, 2026

Hello. I’m Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital’s Private Bank.

Are you getting bored yet? Well, we never tire of new stock market highs, and we hope you do not either. But both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 finished last week at new highs, thanks to face-ripping runs by semiconductors and the Magnificent Seven. Now, AMD and Intel led the way, jumping 14 and 23%, respectively. Intel benefited from a big sales forecast that suggests the chipmaker’s finally in the AI game. 

But if you need to rent a car, check your stock charts first. Avis Budget became the latest meme stock back in March, accelerating to a 600% plus gain. Last week, it veered off the rally road, dropping 71% in just three trading days. Semis and meme stocks bring us to lesson number four: Most big moves have big pullbacks. You do not have to play every run to have a winning portfolio. 

Enough about individual stocks. Let's look at the drivers of portfolio returns, and first up is the economy. Improving economy makes it easier to generate higher earnings. We break monthly and weekly data into four groups: two hard data and two survey data. Professional economist only; don't try this at home. Hard data: industrial production, factory orders, durable goods — they're all trending higher. What about jobs? WARN notices, jobless claims and ADP weekly stats — they're all turning higher.

Now over on the survey side: ISM and PMI industrial surveys, they're rising after a two-year swoon. People surveys: they're the one down group. Consumer sentiment — University of Michigan surveys — are downbeat. They're skewed by higher gas prices and political affiliation. First quarter GDP should come in ahead of expectations strong enough to keep the fed on hold. So no change in rates after this Wednesday's Fed meeting. This should be Jay Powell’s last as chair, provided Warsh gets confirmed by the Senate. Markets will want to know what the Fed thinks about oil inflation.

First quarter earnings. They're coming in strong rising 15% over last year's first quarter. Revenues and earnings: growing at record rates — no recession. On Fed Wednesday for the Magnificent Seven report. So, expect mostly sideways price action until we get those reports. We remain fully invested. Stay patient, ’til next time.