Market Insights Recap — Week of August 31, 2026

Hello, I'm Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital's Private Bank.

August is in the books. September is upon us. Now investing first and foremost is a manufacturing process. You need to have a repeatable, scalable set of procedures and a philosophy in order to be successful. Patience is number one. A sense of market history comes next. A sense of curiosity to keep your biases at bay is third.

Now, our manufacturing process day to day starts with a daily GRIPES session. GRIPES is just a handy way for me to keep the main thing the main thing. So G is for General. For the next several years, we're in a reflation theme. Monetary and fiscal policy, pedal to the metal, creating a lot of dollars into the banking system. So, own risk assets, stocks and commodities. 

R is for Rates. Rates markets are worried about countries' debt levels and inflation. We're at the beginning of a 40-year rising rate cycle. Now Warsh, as Fed Chair, he wants to fight inflation. But I think he holds off raising rates 'til after the midterms. So rising rates, less bonds.

I is for Inflation that eats away at our nominal spending power. PCE is running at a 3.7% clip. Diesel shortages are going to pressure inflation higher over the next six months, so be ready. More cash, less bonds. 

P is for Policy. Thankfully, Congress is on recess at the moment, but more tariffs are coming. Canada won't get solved until January at least.

E is for Economy. GDP for the second quarter held steady at a 1.5% real growth rate. But you add back the -1.6% from imports and you have 3% GDP growth. Looking at just final sales to domestic purchasers, that's a mouthful that describes what you and I are doing; that's running above 4% growth. Toss in inflation of 3.5%, you get a very healthy 7% nominal growth. Good economy means good earnings. So stay in stocks. 

Finally, S is for Stocks. September is upon us, where stock dreams go to die. But the S&P average return in September since 1950 is a negative six-tenths of 1%. But when the trend is positive like it is right now, September is mostly just flat.

So we'll see. Under the hood, the market technicals are in good shape. Long-term bull is doing fine. So stay in stocks. Yes, I'm repeating myself; 'til next time.