Market Insights Recap — Week of November 17, 2025

Hello, I'm Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital's Private Bank.

Economist party, consolidation and enough already. What do they mean for our portfolios? What should we be thinking about?

Government economic data restarts this week with September's payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That comes out on the 20th, and inflation report is going to be doubtful since the surveys were not completed during shutdown. But we think regional Fed bank data suggests no real change in inflation, probably hovering around 3% still. Now weekly jobless claims, they reflect typical seasonal patterns. But there's a spike in the D.C. area again because of the shutdowns. Nothing that would really concern the Fed. Economists are happy now that we get real data flowing again. The recent spate of layoff announcements may worried the Fed, but between Black Friday deals and government reopening, we think there's enough uptick in store in the economy to say that the Fed doesn't really need to do anything in December in terms of cutting rates. 

Solid, steady first-gear growth means no changes in our outlook. Bit of a rough start for the big stocks this month, however, down 2.5% for the first 10 days in November. Now we can find eight cases since the S&P 500 began where this has happened. And in six of those cases, November went on to rise more than 1%, so strong earnings for the third quarter, good outlooks for the fourth quarter and 2026 earnings mean we don't need to rush any portfolio changes here. Now the bears, they've griped all year long about valuations because of the run-up in the Mag Seven. And the consolidation this month is not surprising. Just a little bit of a consolation prize, needed pause. We warned you about breadth divergences over the last couple of weeks. Be ready for that. But remember, the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500? They appear to be doing just fine. The charts say stay patient. Enjoy above-average inflation returns on your cash.

A consolidation or correction? Wait and see, but the fundamentals remain strong. We've also had our fill of gold and bitcoin bugs this year. Enough already. Gold and silver have had a great run in 2025. Government borrowing, excessive debt. The realization that the metals play a role in data center equipment created a sentiment frenzy. Now their charts, though, look like a double top to us. It would be faded for the time being. Despite OPEC-plus slowing production and recent attacks on Russian oil ports by Ukraine, crude just can't catch a bid. Bitcoin is down 20%-plus from its recent high, and since it broke 1,000 back in 2017, its average drawdown is around 40%. Just letting you know. 

So let's wrap it up. Economic data coming again. But the economy still in first gear doing fine. Stocks are consolidating near highs. Wait for Santa Claus. AI and data center hype may be peaking. Fundamentals again, doing fine. Our dashboard remains green; 'til next time.