Market Insights Recap — Week of June 29, 2026

Hello, I’m Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital’s Private Bank.

It’s quarter end — time to take stock or, rather, get ready to post those scores next week. Now, we try to illustrate what’s happening in markets through stories and anecdotes. Yeah, the stories are true, but sometimes you just have to grab those numbers to get a frame of reference; and that’s what we’re going to do the next couple of minutes. It’ll make next week’s mid-year outlook more bearable. 

So, first up: the economy. The economy’s in good shape — manufacturing surveys turned higher last month. Now, these surveys, they’ve been in expansion mode every month this year, unlike the last two years when they were contracting — AI is not the only reason, either — and no recession with 4.3% unemployment and double-digit earnings growth. We did get job readings this Friday — again, 4.3 unemployment, steady. 

The Fed: also steady. They’re on hold through year end. That dot plot thing, it’s kind of leaning towards a hike, and the hedging people, well they’re betting on a hike by year end. We don’t really see it. PCE inflation, the Fed’s favorite gauge: 4.1%. GDP price inflation: 3.6%. Now, that GDP measure is the only inflation gauge that’s below 4% right now. The next CPI reading is on the 14th of July; big banks report the same day — the start of earnings season. 

Jobs, jobs, jobs: weekly claims remain very low. June payrolls this coming Friday: 110/120,000 net new jobs — fine; and again, 4.3% unemployment, no problems. 

What about policy? The clock is ticking on the ROAD housing bill. It becomes law ten days after hitting the president’s desk, and ROAD is some sort of acronym, but it’s all about housing. Pay attention to the backlash on data center construction. Now, think of data center water consumption as a first-generation problem. Those new second- and third-generation designs recycle most, if not all, of their water.Regardless, Arizona. Illinois. Virginia, they’re considering tax increases on data centers. House Rep. Pallone from New Jersey, he wants a national moratorium on data centers.

Now, let’s not forget our favorite topic, though: the stock market. We’re closing out the quarter here —stocks were up roughly 13%; bonds are only up 1%. So, this week we’re going to see big players — CTAs, pension funds — rebalancing away from stocks into bonds. We expect stocks to take some time in July to regroup and consolidate as that rotation away from the Magnificent Seven into other sectors continues. The long-term bull remains in place, internals are reasonably healthy and we remain fully invested. ‘Til next time.