Market Insights Recap — Week of June 8, 2026

Hello, I’m Steve Orr, Chief Investment Officer for Texas Capital’s Private Bank.

Today, let’s talk numbers, numbers and numbers. First up, economic numbers. May’s job report: another nice surprise at 179,000 net new jobs. The important number is the three-month average growth of 188,000 per month. Three months in the same direction for an economist is a trend for sure. No job destruction yet from artificial intelligence. The unemployment rate of 4.3%: holding steady. Overall, the economy is doing well, shifting from second gear last quarter up to third gear this quarter. 

Higher rates ahead? Certainly, on the long end. Down here at the overnight level, the Federal Reserve is going to stay on hold next week — no cuts or hikes anytime soon. Long-term rates, mortgage interest rates? They’re slowly grinding higher thanks to inflation and relentless government borrowing. 

Now, speaking of inflation, CPI, PPI numbers come out Wednesday and Thursday. Consumer prices should be north of 4%, and producer prices likely above 6%. The handwringers on TV are going to say it’s only oil prices from the Iran versus everybody war. The reality you need to know is that services and goods prices started rising last fall. 

Semi and software stocks also started rising last fall. The fun on that trade appears to be stalling out — lots of drivers behind that stalling out but higher rates and future AI profitability do get some blame here. SpaceX, Anthropic and some others are bringing IPOs to market — that’s going to pull liquidity out of the stock market in the coming weeks. 

Stocks, though, remain in a long-term bull. Our instincts and charts, though, point to a bit of a summer consolidation. Now, pull all these numbers together, you’re going to get 3-4-3: 3% GDP growth on tap, 4%-plus inflation for the foreseeable future and a 3% return on bonds — thanks to those higher rates cutting the prices of the bonds. Until next time.